Beating the Inflation Monster With Adam Link
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Episode Description
In this episode of the On The Rise Podcast, host Jeremy Dyer sits down with Adam Link, founder of Fireweed Capital — a comprehensive wealth management firm based in Northern Minnesota that takes a deliberately active approach to navigating market cycles. Adam breaks down why he disagrees with the "set it and forget it" investing philosophy, how active risk management protects investors from the behavioral mistakes that cost them the most, and how to think about portfolio construction across different time horizons. He also shares his perspective on AI's impact on the economy, how to calculate escape velocity from inflation, and why knowing what you want your money to do is the foundation of every good investing decision. A candid, practical, and intellectually honest conversation for any investor looking to think more clearly about wealth.
Summary
1. Active Risk Management — Pulling Off the Highway Adam's investment philosophy rejects the passive "time in the market" mantra. He compares passive investing to ignoring a billboard warning of an accident ahead and staying on the highway anyway. His approach is to identify warning signals, pull off, and chart a different course — even if that means sometimes missing upside in exchange for consistently avoiding the worst drawdowns.
"Our strategy is active risk management. We're going to pull off and find a new route. Was there an accident? Maybe. But we charted a different course around it."
2. Set It and Forget It Only Works If You Actually Forget The best performing investors are people who are dead or who have forgotten they have an account — because they never make the emotional mistake of selling at the bottom. The problem is that anyone with a meaningful amount of money will not forget. And once they remember, they will be tempted to act at exactly the wrong moment.
"Set it works great. Forget it is hard to do when you're down 50% — because you're not forgetting it."
3. Not Losing Is a Winning Strategy Adam's core insight on portfolio performance is counterintuitive — you do not have to beat the benchmark every year to outperform over time. If you avoid the deepest drawdowns, you start the next cycle from a higher baseline. That compounding effect of simply not losing as much can produce superior long-term results without requiring you to be right about when markets peak.
"If you don't lose, you start at a higher baseline that next cycle. You can outperform your benchmark simply by not losing as much."
4. Tax Strategy vs. Performance — Know Which Game You Are Playing Adam frames the tax-versus-performance debate as a function of mindset. If you believe your income is fixed and cannot grow, optimize for tax efficiency — protect as much of the pie as possible. But if you believe your income can grow, performance is the right focus. Paying more in taxes means making more money. An abundance mindset changes the entire investment equation.
"If you're thinking you'll grow the pie, performance is the thing to worry about. Taxes will fall where they fall. It's more fun to work on getting a $100,000 raise than saving $1,000 in taxes."
5. Portfolio Construction Starts With One Question Before any asset allocation conversation, Adam asks one foundational question — what do you want your money to do for you? Short-term liquidity needs, medium-term deployment into passive income vehicles, and long-term retirement funding each require a fundamentally different approach. Clarity about timing and purpose drives every other investment decision.
"At the end of the day, your money is just a tool to get you where you want to go. No one actually wants to be a millionaire. Once you get there, you go — well, what am I a millionaire for?"
6. AI Is Creating a Golden Age for Small Business Adam uses three AI screens simultaneously and sees the technology as a fundamental force multiplier for small operators. While large companies will reduce headcount in knowledge-based professions, the displaced workers will increasingly discover that two people with AI can operate like a 20-person company. He is bullish on a coming renaissance for Main Street entrepreneurship driven by AI productivity.
"Folks that used to work out of their garage will now be two people working out of the garage and acting like a 20-person company because they have AI. I think we're on a golden age for startup companies."
7. Escape Velocity — The Formula for Beating Inflation The inflation monster is not going away — it is a feature of a monetary system, not a bug. The solution is reaching what Adam calls escape velocity — the point at which your portfolio is returning enough money to outpace inflation indefinitely. Getting there requires aggressive savings and growth early, because the base matters more than the rate once you are in retirement.
"The trick is how do you build your base fast enough, aggressively enough while you're young, that by the time you take money out, your portfolio still grows faster than inflation is eating away at it."
8. Know Yourself Before You Know Your Portfolio Adam's final challenge to every listener is to start not with an asset class or a fund but with a clear-eyed understanding of what they actually want their money to accomplish. A person trying to 10x capital in five years needs a completely different portfolio than someone trying to preserve and modestly grow $2 million. Self-knowledge is the foundation of every good financial decision.
"Know yourself, know what your goals are — that is really what is going to drive your entire investment profile moving forward."
Resources
Website: fireweedcapital.com
Email: adam@fireweedcapital.com
